Opposing plans to end Ukraine-Russia war could clash at G20 summit

Support for Ukraine will be tested at the G20 summit as nations clash over whether they should continue offering military support for Kyiv or impose a truce on a conflict which began with Russia’s invasion nearly three years ago.

The debate will pit the ceasefire aims of G20 host nation Brazil, as well as China, against the leaders of the Group of Seven, the globe’s most powerful democratic nations.

On the eve of the summit, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the U.S.

The weapons will likely be aimed towards Kursk Oblast in western Russia, in hopes of assisting Ukrainian forces in their battle against nearly 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops, which have amassed in the border region.

Biden’s authorization comes one day after the Kremlin unleashed a barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drone strikes against Ukraine’s power grid.

The attacks, which lasted several hours, forced neighbouring Poland, a NATO member, to scramble its fighter jets.

In Rio de Janeiro, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to take a leading role in advocating for Ukraine as Biden prepares to exit the world stage.

Trudeau, after nearly a decade in office, is the longest serving G7 leader gathering in Brazil and will also host next year’s G7 summit.

Ahead of the G20, which officially begins Monday, the prime minister’s office (PMO) released a statement on behalf of G7 leaders declaring “unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

“We stand in solidarity contributing to its fight for sovereignty freedom, independence, territorial integrity and its reconstruction,” continued the statement.

According to senior government sources, Trudeau will champion the first pillar of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan” by pushing allies to grant Ukraine full membership in NATO.

Getting the green light to launch long-range missiles will bolster Zelenskyy’s attempts to win the war. His victory plan also requires Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, the release of captives and the return of territory Moscow has annexed.

“The fact that Russia has chosen to redraw those lines on the map is the thing that worries people the most around the world,” Trudeau told reporters before he arrived in Brazil. “That’s why it is so important, that Ukraine wins this conflict (and) that Russia loses.”

The prime minister made the remarks at the closing of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC), an economic meeting of leaders in the region, which took place this year in Lima, Peru.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, backed by China, is expected to advance a different plan at the G20 that does not give annexed territory back to Ukraine.

Lula is expected to urge international leaders to push Russia and Ukraine to enter into talks to end a war that has surpassed 1,000 days.

Brazil and China argue that a ceasefire needs to be negotiated to prevent military escalation that could instigate the use of weapons of mass destruction and attacks on nuclear plants.

The joint plan was drafted without the input of Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says it does not “add up” because it allows Chinese companies to continue “fuelling Russia’s war machine.”

The Ukrainian World Congress (UWC) is calling into question the sincerity of the China-Brazil peace plan.

“How can a country that purports to support Ukraine, design a peace plan in collaboration with China, an ally of Russia, without consulting Ukraine, the clear victim of Russia’s aggression?” UWC president Paul Grod said. “This approach raises serious concerns about the impartiality and intentions of such a plan.”

Prior to their participation in the G20 summit, Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the margins of APEC.

During that meeting, Biden urged Xi to dissuade North Korea from deepening its support for Russia.

Over the past few weeks, North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to help Russian President Vladimir Putin defend the Kursk region from advancing Ukrainian forces. It has also provided Russia with artillery and other munitions.

In a statement describing Biden’s meeting with Xi, the White House condemned North Korea’s deployment of troops and called it a “dangerous expansion of Russia’s unlawful war against Ukraine with serious consequences for both European and Indo-Pacific peace.”

Biden’s boost of Ukraine’s weaponry could guard against the uncertainty of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

Before he won the U.S. election, Trump told Zelenskyy in a meeting that he would resolve the Ukraine war “very quickly” if he won back the presidency. Trump has not provided specifics about his solution, but his vice-presidential choice, JD Vance, has outlined a plan that would allow Russia to keep the territory it has seized in Ukraine.

Trump has also previously mused about cutting off aid to Ukraine to force Kyiv to negotiate a truce with Moscow.

When addressing the challenges about persuading other nations to continue their support for Ukraine’s plan to defeat Russia, Trudeau responded in blunt terms.

“All the allies in the world would not be able to replace a complete withdrawal from supporting Ukraine by the United States,” he said. “That’s why the conversations about why it’s so important to stand up to Russian bullies – why it’s so important to be there to defend the international rules-based order – are continuing across allies, including with the United States.”

With files from Reuters and The Associated Press